KAMPALA, October 29, 2025 — President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is poised for a decisive landslide victory in the 2026 presidential elections, securing an overwhelming 70% of the vote, according to a major new opinion poll released by the Pulse256 Youth Insights Network (PYIN).
The incumbent’s dominant lead significantly surpasses his main challenger, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu of the National Unity Platform (NUP), who registers 20% support nationwide. The findings underscore the resilience of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) due to deep-seated support in rural areas driven by visible development projects and social transformation programs.
The Numbers: A Two-Horse Race with a Clear Leader
The nationwide field survey, conducted by PYIN between October 1 and 10, 2025, involved a robust sample size of 20,613 respondents and carries a margin of error of \pm 2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
The poll results indicate that the remaining presidential hopefuls collectively account for less than 10% of the projected vote share, solidifying the contest as a battle between the NRM and NUP, albeit highly skewed:
|
Candidate |
Party |
Support (%) |
|---|---|---|
|
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni |
NRM |
70% |
|
Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu |
NUP |
20% |
|
Nandala Mafabi |
FDC |
5% |
|
Mugisha Muntu |
ANT |
2% |
|
Others (combined) |
|
3 |
Drivers of Incumbency Success
The report attributes President Museveni’s substantial lead primarily to the impact of government-led livelihood programs and massive infrastructure investment across the country.
Rural Foundation: The data reveals that 76% of rural voters intend to vote NRM, citing tangible benefits from initiatives such as the Parish Development Model (PDM) and Emyooga. By June 2025, the report notes that 10,589 PDM SACCOs had been capitalized with UGX 3.22 trillion, directly benefiting 2.87 million Ugandans.
Peace and Development Dividend: The stability narrative is a cornerstone of the NRM’s appeal. The report highlights Uganda’s sustained peace, citing 23 years without major insurgency. Furthermore, significant progress in infrastructure is a key driver, including the expansion of the road network from 1,000 km in 1986 to 6,306 km by 2024, and electricity access reaching 76% of sub-counties. The ongoing development of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) and increased national industrialization were also cited as factors consolidating support.
Regional Breakdown: NUP’s Urban Concentration
While the NRM holds a majority in all regions, the poll highlights stark differences in voter sentiment between urban and rural areas.
The poll gives Museveni 80 – 85% in Western Region on the basis of ‘Consolidated base’, West Nile 70 – 74% on Trade & security advantage, Eastern 65 – 70% for the PDM success, Northern 63 – 69% for the Peace dividend, and Central (excl. metro) 58 – 62% a Balanced contest. In Kampala & Wakiso Museveni polled 32 – 38% attributed to
Urban protest, low tun out of voters.
