BOU’s report for the year ending June 2019 has shown a stable financial system for the country, stable economic growth and moderate risks to the countrys macro-financial environment.
The report released on Tuesday indicates that Uganda’s GDP growth was strong at 6.1 percent, and is projected to stand at 6.0 percent in June 2020 if it is supported by accommodative monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy and increased public investment in infrastructure.
It also showed that the shilling was stable, interest rates held steadily, and real estate prices were relatively stable throughout the financial year. In his remarks, Bank of Uganda Prof. Emmanuel Mutebile noted that this stability led to sustained reduction in risks to Uganda’s financial system stability throughout the year that ended June 2019.
Banking sector resilience to credit risk shocks also improved as banks built substantial capital and liquidity buffers. That despite sluggish global economic performance the banking sector held sufficient capital buffers and registered resilience to credit risk.
A Financial Stability Report provides an assessment of the global and domestic macro-financial environment while focusing particularly on the performance and condition of the country’s financial system stability.
However, the report shows that there are downside risks to this outlook due to the rising public debt, and prospects of a market downturn which include potential shocks from the external sector in form of export demand which could cause volatility in the domestic foreign exchange market. These point to deepening trade conflict between US and China which could result in lower export demand weighing down on financial flows.
It however notes that going forward, continued robust economic growth and accommodative monetary policy are expected to support financial stability, and boost private sector lending and improvement in asset quality.
The report also noted a continuing trend of the rising role of technology which enabled innovations driven by mobile money payments technology in provision of financial services. Overall, a number of potential benefits for the financial sector were registered; including improved efficiency and financial inclusion. The use of technology enabled greater financial access and use, facilitated trade, and easy transfer of remittances.
The report however warns that as banks benefit from the increased access and use of financial services through access to more retail deposits, funding concentration pressures should ease to enable greater inter-mediation.